I've been working with the developers on the prediction market for somet time now. Due to some recent changes that affect people's starting prediction credits, we need to reset the whole prediction system. All kudos and prediction credits won/loss will be reset.

A reminder: the prediction market is simply game that is free to all to play. You predict future events by buying contracts that you think will occur. People who buy the wrong contracts lose their credits to the winning contract buyers. The credits and contracts are only a way to keep score and do not involve real money in any way. Though we may award real money prizes in the future.

Now, the system is self-service and everybody starts out with 1,000 credits. Before, we used daily karma and that didn't create a level playing field. Now anyone can create or end a prediction. Moderator approval of predictions is no longer needed.

You are charged a "credit" cost for starting a contest. If at least 5 people buy contracts, you get refunded the cost plus an additional amount for creating a successful prediction. The goal is to have people create interesting contests that others will participate in.

When a prediction's outcome has come to pass or if the deadline has passed, then anybody can close the prediction. You'll be asked to provide corroborating evidence such as an URL from a news story. You also pick the time that the event happened.

If someone cheats by buying a prediction after the event has happened, their contracts will be null and void (and not refunded). This will deter cheating. We're also going to make the contract purchase log available online so people can help spot cheaters.

Within 24 hours of a pending close, the suggested winning position can be contested. The person contesting the close position or time must provide a link to supporting evidence. Then a moderator will intervene and pick the correct close. People caught cheating or abusing the system will have their prediction market privilege removed.

The Kudos Score is built directly upon three factors:

Kudos Score
60% How many prediction dollars and predictions you've won
30% Karma you've received
10% Stars you've accumulated

The highest kudos score possible is 100. So to get the highest kudos score, you have to be good at the prediction game, as well as a valuable contributing member here.

Your kudos score is also used when you submit a new story. Get a high kudos score and you've just become a newshound. Or if enough people vote up a story, then it will get published. The moderators no longer have to approve new stories. You all have the power. (Yes, including the French.) In the future, people with high kudos score will possibly get additional moderator-like privileges, like unbanning.

Why do kudos scores rely heavily on predictive ability? Because it's harder to game the system. It's one (admittedly narrow) measure of intelligence. So we'll be keeping an eye on predictions and making sure people aren't cheating. Future changes will include having a preset deadline to buy contracts, since as the days wear on, the easier it is to "predict" an event. We're also going to limit the deadline early on: we want people to create interesting predictions that resolve within weeks rather than months. Like maybe sports and political events.

We're the lucky testbed for this new technology, so have fun and let me know how you'd like to see it improved, and I'll pass on the info to the developers.

Shon

Too complicated. We're simple people.






I predict this won't last a week.

too complicated. People are interested only in karma ; if they can't get karma out of predictions, they'll simply avoid it.

If it's working, don't fix it. But kudos for the effort, though.

Too complicated. We're simple people.






I predict this won't last a week.

And if you weren't a lazy frog who brain has been rotted by socialism you'd post a thread predicting this.

It's a shame that socialism has turned the biggest karma whore on ff.com into a lazy welfare drone too lazy to post a prediction.

[And if you weren't a lazy frog who brain has been rotted by socialism you'd post a thread predicting this.

Nah, if I was in it for big money, I'd predict it is your necrosed dick that'll fall off by the end of the week.

Too complicated. We're simple people.

And of course, the kudos score is built upon predictions, and predictions are a small measure of intelligence. So, umm, yeah. I guess that confirms it all.

But seriously, here's the simple formula:

1. Buy contracts that you think will happen
2. Profit

That's it.

Nah, if I was in it for big money, I'd predict it is your necrosed dick that'll fall off by the end of the week.

Sounds like someone lost a few karma because of the "reset".

You should cancel a few classes and spend time whoring or doing bad copies of of the real Enquirer.

You'll feel a lot better and for sure the kids will be better off.

the real Enquirer.

Which one is that?

Shon,

I see your kudos,

and I raise you...











Two Dodos

Which one is that?

The humorous one with exquisite graphics and quality photoshops.

In other words, the one without the crappy graphics and poor excuses for a photoshop.

And here I thought a Kudos was a large African antelope.

Damn, first I get robbed of my regular K, and then they take my predictions Karma too!

Atlantic wrote:

Damn, first I get robbed of my regular K, and then they take my predictions Karma too!

It's like in the tour de France or the O.G Atlantic... They can't win without cheating or double standard!

Does Shon have something against pictures?

am gonna tell a bulshit, but is the prediction in real money?

If yes, thanks for changing $ into €, am not a wagrant.

Karma
Kudos
Klondike Bars

I love the way the whining moron fabricated another table to try to reflect well on himself.

Can't even be a proper cunt without, er, making a cunt of himself...

I've lost something like 60 kudos. Is there a way to get some compensations ?

Depends if you're slinky or not.

Wait, I forgot, you're money is in Euroes.

Snicker

OldLyme wrote:

Karma
Kudos
Klondike Bars

What... you missed Kudzu!

I love the way the whining moron fabricated another table to try to reflect well on himself.

I didn't "fabricate" anything.
This is the official top predictors table that was on this website until the reset.

I also have a couple of shots of your own wrong predictions in my library, such as the vote of no confidence for Gordon Brown before June 2008 on which you bet 40K, and against which I bet 500 that I will never see again...

Your kudos score is also used when you submit a new story. Get a high kudos score and you've just become a newshound.

Dumb. Whether or not someone has newshound status should depend on whether or not they publish good news stories that conform with the rules of posting. Why would you tie it to kudos score?

In the future, people with high kudos score will possibly get additional moderator-like privileges, like unbanning.

Even worse.

There's less than two weeks before Captain Morgan returns.

Gentlemen, hide your Matamoro.

I_brake_4_camels wrote:

And here I thought a Kudos was a large African antelope.

Last time I checked, a KUDO was an awkward shaped coffee table at IKEA.

Ha, I think I shot myself in the foot.

But it's only a game, and if the goal is a tad bit of realism, here are a couple of suggestions that might make it more similar to derivatives trading:

1. If the "betting line" makes 1.0 unit invested have a present value of 1.5, for example, allow a user set bid and offer values on that 'contract' so that contract becomes liquid and negotiable before it expires. You're getting bunches of political predictions with long time horizons, and that tends to be boring. Opinions change daily. Make the system reflect that.

2. Currently, it's impossible to hedge your bet, e.g. for an event with say 47:1 probability as set by the trading, why can you not buy 47 of the low payback contract and buy 1 of the 47 payback contract? It's done in real markets all the time. Why not here?

3. Why is it cheating if it's the sort of thing that happens in markets all the time... it's called arbitrage, or a carry trade, sometimes it's called research, sometimes it's simply following the newswire closely. For example, if I trade a dot com retailer stock and find that I am able to correlate their revenue to hits on their site measured by let's say alexa.com, then I can know with near certainty their revenue number announced in the next quarterly report and profit greatly from it....simply by doing homework that no one else seems to be doing.

4. If you want a lot of short duration trades, why is charging to formulate the trade a way to incentivize it?

OK. I bet 1 karma that I don't understand you.

Do I get 2 kudos or one dodo if Mad Poet trumps with kudzu??