This prediction is about the medals tally of 3 clearly identified groups of athletes

Right. Two countries and... one union of twenty-seven independent states based on the European Communities and founded to enhance political, economic and social co-operation - formerly known as European Community (EC) or European Economic Community (EEC), status pending ratification of the Lisbon Treaty (barring any unforeseen adherence to democratic or constitutional principles of aforementioned member states) - not including Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, or Serbia.

A classic match-up.