English.news.cn 2010-02-09 03:44:19

by Mohamad Ali Harissi, Ren Ke

BEIRUT, Feb. 8 (Xinhua) -- The accusations come almost every day from Israeli officials: Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon; Hezbollah is smuggling weapons into the south of Lebanon, with the help of Syria. These claims turned during the last days into a verbal battle mainly between Syria and Israel.

And in the Middle East where everything seems to be connected, analysts are wondering whether this round of threats will result in a regional war that involves Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Israel.

ON THE BORDERS OF LEBANON, ISRAEL

Tension on Lebanon's borders with Israel has been on the rise in recent weeks. Israel said that the Lebanese government not Hezbollah, will be solely responsible for any violence on the border, as Hezbollah now holds two seats in Lebanon's 30-seat government.

Lebanon also accuses Israel of violating resolution 1701 for more than 6,500 times since 2006, and abducting its citizen last week.

Informed Lebanese sources have said that Hezbollah cadres have been on alert in all Lebanese regions, and the party's officials have been advised to take precautions against any possible Israeli attack.

Ammar Moussawi, Hezbollah official in charge of international relations, stressed after a rare meeting with UN special envoy Michael Williams last week the party's readiness for any Israeli aggression.

Dr. Hilal Khashan, a Palestinian-American scholar chairing of Department of Political Studies and Public Administration at the American University of Beirut, said that "the war is looming."

He said one of the possibilities is that Israel wages a preemptive war against Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, and is a much more imminent threat to its security."

Hezbollah fought a devastating 34-day war with Israel in 2006 after abducting two Israeli soldiers on the borders with Lebanon. Now the Jewish state accuses the Shiite armed group of stockpiling 40,000 rockets, over twice of it owned before 2006 war.

Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad told Israel Radio last week that the newly developed "Iron Dome" short-range missile shield may also aim at Lebanon front.

Lebanese cabinet stressed on Thursday its united stance in facing Israeli aggression, while Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he would launch a series of international talks to face the challenge.

"Arguably, neither side wants a showdown at this stage," said Peter Harling, director of the Syria Project for the International Crisis Group.

"But history shows wars don't necessarily require a consensus; rhetorical escalation, the absence of effective containment and mediation mechanisms, and a measure of miscalculation can suffice, " he added.